By now you have all heard the rumored deal.
The Jets send the Bruins Jacob Trouba for Ryan Spooner, Brandon Carlo and a 1st.
This would be a mistake of Seguinian proportions and I will tell you why.
First, the Bruins are overpaying. VASTLY. The Bruins 1st could be in the lottery if Rask stops propping this team up like Bernie Lomax or they don’t find some consistent secondary scoring. The way prices have been trending at the deadlines the past two seasons, Ryan Spooner could net you a 1st or two 2nds at the deadline on his own. 24 year old centers capable of close to 50 points a season, with a prorated cap hit of under a million dollars are beyond valuable to a contender looking to squeeze in some more offense at the deadline.
Second and most importantly… Carlo is more valuable than Trouba.
Trouba may be the better player right now. But it’s close.
Trouba is a more polished known quantity, with an established track record of being the top 4 defenseman the Bruins need.
But Carlo is showing that top pairing minutes with Zdeno Chara are already a challenge he’s ready for. He’s putting up points at about the same rate as Trouba did while logging similar minutes. And as the last 4 minutes of the game against the Panthers showed, he’s already thriving in high pressure situations. Plus he’s almost 3 years younger, two inches taller and an excellent skater.
But most importantly, Carlo is cheaper. Much cheaper and that is what makes him untouchable.
If the Bruins trade for Trouba, he’s gonna need a contract. And that deal is gonna be in the 4-5 million per AAV neighborhood at the least, for the next four to six years. For this season and the following two, Brandon Carlo costs the Bruins a grand total of $894,167 according to Cap Friendly.com.
And that is the difference that makes Brandon Carlo a more valuable piece than Trouba even if he doesn’t end up being as good as Trouba. If Carlo is even close to the player that Trouba is, he provides more value against the Cap than Trouba does by a wide margin. The Jets have already benefited from these extremely team friendly entry level years with Trouba and it’s what they want to have again by asking for Carlo.
Giving up Carlo, let alone other capital, for a player just a little better and 4 times as expensive is something so dumb, the previous GM would probably have already done it.